Caroline County, Virginia: commercial real estate data.
Caroline County, Virginia has a population of 32,098 across 528 square miles, up 8.4 percent since the 2020 census base. County output reached $1.26 bn in 2024, 424 establishments operate here, and the SBA record carries 20 7(a) approvals worth $14.7 m.
120 sourced county values · tier FULL · 11 sections
Caroline County
How many people live in Caroline County
- Population32,098
- Households11,988
- Average household size2.68
- Median household income$87,407
- Median age38.9
- Median gross rent$1,293 per month
- Median owner-occupied home value$307,700
- Home value to household income3.5 times
- Annual rent as a share of median income17.8 percent
- Adults 25 and over with a bachelor degree or higher21.9 percent
- Adults 25 and over with a graduate degree8.1 percent
- Adults 25 and over22,716
- Population under 187,275
- Share under 1822.7 percent
- Population 65 and over5,354
- Share 65 and over16.7 percent
- Working age population, 18 to 6419,469
- Civilian labor force16,791
- Unemployment rate5.3 percent
- Labor force participation, adults 18 and over67.6 percent
- Rank by population among Virginia counties55th of 133
- Rank by population among US county-equivalents1419th
Caroline County is the 55th largest of 133 Virginia counties by population. A median home costs 3.5 times median household income, which is an affordable ownership market by national standards. Residents under 18 outnumber those 65 and over, at 22.7 percent against 16.7 percent, a household formation profile rather than a retirement one.
US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, 2020-2024 5-year.
Caroline County
Is Caroline County growing
- Population change since the 2020 census base8.39 percent
- Census 2020 base population30,887
- Births, 2024341
- Deaths, 2024327
- Natural change, 202414
- Net domestic migration, 2024695
- Net international migration, 202465
- Total net migration, 2024760
- Cumulative net domestic migration, 2021 to 20242,377
- Rank by growth among US county-equivalents214th
The county has grown 8.39 percent since the 2020 census base. Migration contributed more to 2024 change than births over deaths, so demand here follows people arriving rather than families forming.
US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, Vintage 2024, Vintage 2024, estimates 2020 to 2024.
Caroline County
Where people moving to Caroline County come from
- Tax returns filed by households arriving1,308
- People arriving, from those returns2,447
- Adjusted gross income arriving$85.0 m
- Net adjusted gross income movement$0
- Average income of an arriving household$65,009
- Largest single originCaroline County Non-migrants (11,585 households)
- Largest single destination (11,585 households)
| Origin | Households | People | Adjusted gross income |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caroline County Non-migrants | 11,585 | 23,104 | $799.9 m |
| Spotsylvania County | 335 | 649 | $20.6 m |
| Other flows - Different State | 256 | 467 | $15.2 m |
| Other flows - Same State | 173 | 295 | $8.8 m |
| Other flows - South | 149 | 279 | $8.7 m |
| Stafford County | 139 | 295 | $8.8 m |
| Hanover County | 72 | 133 | $4.1 m |
| Fredericksburg city | 68 | 120 | $3.6 m |
The largest single source of arrivals is Caroline County Non-migrants, which is the catchment a retail or multifamily study should look at first.
US Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income county migration flows, 2021 to 2022 filing years.
Caroline County
What the Caroline County economy runs on
- County GDP, 2024$1.26 bn
- County GDP, 2023$1.15 bn
- GDP change, 2023 to 20249.8 percent
- GDP change over five years49.3 percent
- Rank by GDP among Virginia counties60th
- Rank by GDP among US county-equivalents1653rd
- GDP per resident$39,356
Output grew 9.8 percent in the latest year and 49.3 percent over five, which is the trend line a lender will read behind any single year figure.
US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional, table CAGDP2, CAGDP2, through 2024.
Caroline County
Who employs people in Caroline County
- Covered employment, annual average6,591
- Establishments reporting754
- Average annual pay$48,154
- Average weekly wage$926
- Sector 56, employment960
- Sector 56, average annual pay$32,157
- Sector 44-45, employment663
- Sector 44-45, average annual pay$30,039
- Sector 72, employment458
- Sector 72, average annual pay$25,455
- Sector 42, employment376
- Sector 42, average annual pay$55,312
- Sector 23, employment318
- Sector 31-33, employment307
| Sector | Employment | Establishments | Average annual pay |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sector 56 | 960 | 44 | $32,157 |
| Sector 44-45 | 663 | 61 | $30,039 |
| Sector 72 | 458 | 41 | $25,455 |
| Sector 42 | 376 | 16 | $55,312 |
| Sector 23 | 318 | 67 | $63,368 |
| Sector 31-33 | 307 | 17 | $63,328 |
| Sector 81 | 295 | 54 | $33,144 |
| Sector 48-49 | 286 | 32 | $55,594 |
The largest sector is the biggest private employer group at 960 jobs, 14.6 percent of covered employment. Average pay per job sits below median household income, so households here typically need more than one earner.
US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2024 annual averages.
Caroline County
What businesses operate in Caroline County
- Establishments, all industries424
- Employment at those establishments4,315
- Annual payroll$195.3 m
- Establishments per 1,000 residents13.2
These are counts of establishments physically operating in the county, not listings, so they are the supply side a feasibility study measures demand against.
US Census Bureau, County Business Patterns, 2023.
Caroline County
What is being built in Caroline County
- Housing units authorised by permit, 2024318
- Declared construction value permitted$76.7 m
- Single family units authorised318
- Multifamily units authorised0
- Multifamily share of units0.0 percent
- Average declared value per unit$241,106
- Units authorised per 1,000 households26.5
Multifamily is 0.0 percent of units authorised, so the pipeline is predominantly for sale product.
US Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey, 2024 annual.
Caroline County
How much SBA lending happens in Caroline County
- 7(a) approvals recorded20
- 7(a) gross approval dollars$14.7 m
- Average 7(a) approval$736,320
- Median 7(a) approval$424,000
- 10th percentile approval$15,000
- 90th percentile approval$2,370,000
- Largest single approval$3,150,000
- Jobs reported supported, 7(a)164
- Jobs per approval8.2
- Distinct 7(a) lenders active13
- Distinct industries receiving approvals13
- Median 7(a) term120 months
- Share of loans on real estate terms, 240 months or longer35.0 percent
- Loans on real estate terms7
- Loans on working capital terms, 120 months or shorter12
- Franchise loans3
- Franchise share of approvals15.0 percent
- Leading industry by approval countSite Preparation Contractors (3)
- Most active lenderTD Bank, National Association (3)
- 504 approvals recorded6
- 504 gross approval dollars$7.6 m
- Average 504 approval$1,273,667
- Median 504 approval$451,000
- Distinct CDCs active2
- 504 jobs per approval11.5
- 504 jobs per million dollars approved9.0
- Most active CDCRappahannock Economic Development Corporation (4)
- 7(a) share of SBA approvals76.9 percent
- Combined SBA approval dollars$22.4 m
The average approval of $736,320 sits well above the median of $424,000, so a small number of large deals is pulling the mean up. The median is the better guide to what a typical borrower here actually gets. 35.0 percent of approvals run on real estate terms of 240 months or more, so this is a market where SBA credit is buying buildings, not just funding operations.
US Small Business Administration, 7(a) FOIA release, FY2020 to FY2026 year to date, as of 2026-06-30. US Small Business Administration, 504 FOIA release, FY2010 to FY2026 year to date, as of 2026-06-30.
Caroline County
Do SBA loans in Caroline County get paid back
- Loans with a final outcome recorded3
- Paid in full3
- Charged off0
- Status: Cancelled3
- Status: Paid in full3
- Status: Exempt from disclosure12
- Status: Committed, not yet disbursed2
Too few loans have reached a final outcome to publish a charge off rate. only 3 resolved loans, too few to publish a rate. A rate computed on a handful of loans is noise, so none is shown.
US Small Business Administration, 7(a) FOIA release, FY2020 to FY2026 year to date, as of 2026-06-30.
Caroline County
Which parts of Caroline County get the lending
- Places in the county with recorded lending5
- Ruther Glen, approvals12
- MILFORD, approvals3
- BOWLING GREEN, approvals2
- FREDERICKSBURG, approvals2
- Beaverdam, approvals1
| Place | Approvals | Gross approval dollars |
|---|---|---|
| Ruther Glen | 12 | $9,117,600 |
| MILFORD | 3 | $3,263,800 |
| BOWLING GREEN | 2 | $1,680,000 |
| FREDERICKSBURG | 2 | $240,000 |
| Beaverdam | 1 | $425,000 |
Ruther Glen accounts for 12 approvals against 3 in MILFORD. County level figures average over that gap, which is why a site decision is made at the submarket rather than the county.
US Small Business Administration, 7(a) FOIA release, FY2020 to FY2026 year to date, as of 2026-06-30.
Caroline County
How big is Caroline County
- Land area528 sq mi
- Rank by land area among Virginia counties18th of 133
- Width, east to west31.2 mi
- Height, north to south32.6 mi
- Geographies sharing a boundary7
- Residents per square mile of land61
- Establishments per square mile0.80
US Census Bureau county boundary geometry, TIGER, adjacency computed from shared boundary vertices, TIGER county boundaries. US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, 2020-2024 5-year. US Census Bureau, County Business Patterns, 2023.
Coverage
What this page does not hold.
Every item below could be filled with a plausible figure. None of them is. On a page a lender may read, a number that cannot be traced is worse than an absence, so the absences are named.
- No NFIP communities are listed for this county in the FEMA Community Status Book.
- Flood zone record counts are not held. The flood coverage export has not landed, so no count is shown rather than an estimated one.
- Traffic counts resolve in the platform, not in this dataset, so no AADT figure is printed here.
- Zoning is in build. Parcel level zoning is not published on this page.
Feasibility studies
When a Caroline County site needs a document a lender will accept.
The same data layer behind this page is the one the studies are written from. A study for a Caroline County site starts with the figures you are reading, carrying the same source and period into the credit file.
- Population32,098
- Households11,988
- Average household size2.68
- Median household income$87,407
- Median age38.9
Common questions
Caroline County questions, answered from the record.
How many people live in Caroline County, Virginia?
32,098, in 11,988 households, ranking 55th of 133 Virginia counties. Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, 2020-2024 5-year.
Is Caroline County growing?
The population has grown 8.39 percent since the 2020 census base. In 2024 there were 341 births against 327 deaths, with net migration of 760. Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, Vintage 2024, Vintage 2024, estimates 2020 to 2024.
What is the median household income in Caroline County?
$87,407. The median owner-occupied home is valued at $307,700, which is 3.5 times income, and median gross rent is $1,293 per month. Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, 2020-2024 5-year.
How many businesses are there in Caroline County?
424 establishments, employing 4,315 people with an annual payroll of $195.3 m. These are establishments physically operating in the county, not listings. Source: US Census Bureau, County Business Patterns, 2023.
What is the average wage in Caroline County?
Average annual pay is $48,154, or $926 a week, across 6,591 covered jobs. Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2024 annual averages.
How much SBA lending happens in Caroline County?
20 7(a) approvals totalling $14.7 m since FY2020, across 13 lenders, with a median approval of $424,000, plus 6 504 approvals worth $7.6 m. These are approvals recorded in the release, not loans disbursed.
What is being built in Caroline County?
318 housing units were authorised by permit in 2024, with a declared construction value of $76.7 m. Multifamily was 0.0 percent of units. Source: US Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey, 2024 annual.
What is the radon zone for Caroline County?
Zone 3, a predicted average indoor radon screening level less than 2 pCi/L. Source: US EPA, Map of Radon Zones, county spreadsheet, 2024-05 publication, EPA 402/A-16/001.
Where do people moving to Caroline County come from?
The largest single origin is Caroline County Non-migrants, with 11,585 households. Arriving households report an average income of $65,009 against null for those leaving. Source: US Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income county migration flows, 2021 to 2022 filing years.
Are traffic counts available for Caroline County on this page?
No. Annual average daily traffic resolves in the platform rather than in this dataset, so no AADT figure is printed here. It is a gap we know about rather than a figure we estimated.
Is zoning published for Caroline County?
Not yet. The zoning layer is in build. Nothing on this page presents parcel level zoning, and where a statutory framework applies it is marked as the statewide frame with confirm locally attached.