Warren County, Virginia: commercial real estate data.
Warren County, Virginia has a population of 41,531 across 213 square miles, up 4.3 percent since the 2020 census base. County output reached $2.56 bn in 2024, 882 establishments operate here, and the SBA record carries 18 7(a) approvals worth $15.0 m.
118 sourced county values · tier FULL · 11 sections
Warren County
How many people live in Warren County
- Population41,531
- Households15,339
- Average household size2.71
- Median household income$84,682
- Median age40.5
- Median gross rent$1,199 per month
- Median owner-occupied home value$348,400
- Home value to household income4.1 times
- Annual rent as a share of median income17.0 percent
- Adults 25 and over with a bachelor degree or higher25.0 percent
- Adults 25 and over with a graduate degree9.7 percent
- Adults 25 and over29,321
- Population under 188,970
- Share under 1821.6 percent
- Population 65 and over7,161
- Share 65 and over17.2 percent
- Working age population, 18 to 6425,400
- Civilian labor force20,775
- Unemployment rate4.9 percent
- Labor force participation, adults 18 and over63.8 percent
- Rank by population among Virginia counties43rd of 133
- Rank by population among US county-equivalents1177th
Warren County is the 43rd largest of 133 Virginia counties by population. A median home costs 4.1 times median household income, which is an affordable ownership market by national standards. Residents under 18 outnumber those 65 and over, at 21.6 percent against 17.2 percent, a household formation profile rather than a retirement one.
US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, 2020-2024 5-year.
Warren County
Is Warren County growing
- Population change since the 2020 census base4.27 percent
- Census 2020 base population40,724
- Births, 2024488
- Deaths, 2024490
- Natural change, 2024-2
- Net domestic migration, 2024299
- Net international migration, 2024182
- Total net migration, 2024481
- Cumulative net domestic migration, 2021 to 20241,235
- Rank by growth among US county-equivalents645th
The county has grown 4.27 percent since the 2020 census base. Deaths exceeded births in 2024, so all of the growth came from people moving in. A market held up by migration alone is more sensitive to a change in relative cost than one growing from household formation.
US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, Vintage 2024, Vintage 2024, estimates 2020 to 2024.
Warren County
Where people moving to Warren County come from
- Tax returns filed by households arriving1,477
- People arriving, from those returns2,699
- Adjusted gross income arriving$105.9 m
- Net adjusted gross income movement$0
- Average income of an arriving household$71,722
- Largest single originWarren County Non-migrants (15,424 households)
- Largest single destination (15,424 households)
| Origin | Households | People | Adjusted gross income |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warren County Non-migrants | 15,424 | 31,080 | $1.25 bn |
| Other flows - Different State | 422 | 834 | $31.0 m |
| Other flows - South | 220 | 420 | $15.8 m |
| Other flows - Same State | 206 | 356 | $11.8 m |
| Fairfax County | 168 | 292 | $14.4 m |
| Prince William County | 144 | 246 | $9.6 m |
| Frederick County | 124 | 217 | $7.4 m |
| Shenandoah County | 92 | 176 | $4.3 m |
The largest single source of arrivals is Warren County Non-migrants, which is the catchment a retail or multifamily study should look at first.
US Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income county migration flows, 2021 to 2022 filing years.
Warren County
What the Warren County economy runs on
- County GDP, 2024$2.56 bn
- County GDP, 2023$2.53 bn
- GDP change, 2023 to 20241.0 percent
- GDP change over five years35.8 percent
- Rank by GDP among Virginia counties40th
- Rank by GDP among US county-equivalents1092nd
- GDP per resident$61,573
Output grew 1.0 percent in the latest year and 35.8 percent over five, which is the trend line a lender will read behind any single year figure.
US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional, table CAGDP2, CAGDP2, through 2024.
Warren County
Who employs people in Warren County
- Covered employment, annual average13,387
- Establishments reporting1,178
- Average annual pay$52,768
- Average weekly wage$1,015
- Sector 44-45, employment1,681
- Sector 44-45, average annual pay$34,137
- Sector 62, employment1,479
- Sector 62, average annual pay$56,311
- Sector 72, employment1,467
- Sector 72, average annual pay$25,165
- Sector 31-33, employment1,383
- Sector 31-33, average annual pay$72,301
- Sector 48-49, employment1,233
- Sector 61, employment766
| Sector | Employment | Establishments | Average annual pay |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sector 44-45 | 1,681 | 122 | $34,137 |
| Sector 62 | 1,479 | 265 | $56,311 |
| Sector 72 | 1,467 | 82 | $25,165 |
| Sector 31-33 | 1,383 | 36 | $72,301 |
| Sector 48-49 | 1,233 | 32 | $58,014 |
| Sector 61 | 766 | 20 | $40,659 |
| Sector 23 | 755 | 126 | $61,306 |
| Sector 56 | 666 | 41 | $56,142 |
The largest sector is the biggest private employer group at 1,681 jobs, 12.6 percent of covered employment. Average pay per job sits below median household income, so households here typically need more than one earner.
US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2024 annual averages.
Warren County
What businesses operate in Warren County
- Establishments, all industries882
- Employment at those establishments11,889
- Annual payroll$560.1 m
- Establishments per 1,000 residents21.2
These are counts of establishments physically operating in the county, not listings, so they are the supply side a feasibility study measures demand against.
US Census Bureau, County Business Patterns, 2023.
Warren County
What is being built in Warren County
- Housing units authorised by permit, 2024170
- Declared construction value permitted$55.1 m
- Single family units authorised170
- Multifamily units authorised0
- Multifamily share of units0.0 percent
- Average declared value per unit$323,848
- Units authorised per 1,000 households11.1
Multifamily is 0.0 percent of units authorised, so the pipeline is predominantly for sale product.
US Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey, 2024 annual.
Warren County
How much SBA lending happens in Warren County
- 7(a) approvals recorded18
- 7(a) gross approval dollars$15.0 m
- Average 7(a) approval$832,011
- Median 7(a) approval$484,000
- 10th percentile approval$35,000
- 90th percentile approval$2,251,200
- Largest single approval$2,933,500
- Jobs reported supported, 7(a)156
- Jobs per approval8.7
- Distinct 7(a) lenders active15
- Distinct industries receiving approvals17
- Median 7(a) term120 months
- Share of loans on real estate terms, 240 months or longer27.8 percent
- Loans on real estate terms5
- Loans on working capital terms, 120 months or shorter13
- Franchise loans2
- Franchise share of approvals11.1 percent
- Leading industry by approval countWineries (2)
- Most active lenderThe Huntington National Bank (2)
- 504 approvals recorded8
- 504 gross approval dollars$3.6 m
- Average 504 approval$452,000
- Median 504 approval$266,000
- Distinct CDCs active3
- 504 jobs per approval8.5
- 504 jobs per million dollars approved18.8
- Most active CDCBusiness Finance Group, Inc. (5)
- 7(a) share of SBA approvals69.2 percent
- Combined SBA approval dollars$18.6 m
The average approval of $832,011 sits well above the median of $484,000, so a small number of large deals is pulling the mean up. The median is the better guide to what a typical borrower here actually gets. Only 27.8 percent of approvals run on real estate terms, so SBA credit here is mostly working capital and equipment rather than property acquisition.
US Small Business Administration, 7(a) FOIA release, FY2020 to FY2026 year to date, as of 2026-06-30. US Small Business Administration, 504 FOIA release, FY2010 to FY2026 year to date, as of 2026-06-30.
Warren County
Do SBA loans in Warren County get paid back
- Loans with a final outcome recorded3
- Paid in full3
- Charged off0
- Status: Paid in full3
- Status: Exempt from disclosure15
Too few loans have reached a final outcome to publish a charge off rate. only 3 resolved loans, too few to publish a rate. A rate computed on a handful of loans is noise, so none is shown.
US Small Business Administration, 7(a) FOIA release, FY2020 to FY2026 year to date, as of 2026-06-30.
Warren County
Which parts of Warren County get the lending
- Places in the county with recorded lending5
- FRONT ROYAL, approvals13
- BENTONVILLE, approvals2
- LINDEN, approvals1
- FREDERICKSBURG, approvals1
- Middletown, approvals1
| Place | Approvals | Gross approval dollars |
|---|---|---|
| FRONT ROYAL | 13 | $12,491,200 |
| BENTONVILLE | 2 | $85,000 |
| LINDEN | 1 | $2,000,000 |
| FREDERICKSBURG | 1 | $300,000 |
| Middletown | 1 | $100,000 |
FRONT ROYAL accounts for 13 approvals against 2 in BENTONVILLE. County level figures average over that gap, which is why a site decision is made at the submarket rather than the county.
US Small Business Administration, 7(a) FOIA release, FY2020 to FY2026 year to date, as of 2026-06-30.
Warren County
How big is Warren County
- Land area213 sq mi
- Rank by land area among Virginia counties84th of 133
- Width, east to west20.6 mi
- Height, north to south19.1 mi
- Geographies sharing a boundary6
- Residents per square mile of land195
- Establishments per square mile4.14
US Census Bureau county boundary geometry, TIGER, adjacency computed from shared boundary vertices, TIGER county boundaries. US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, 2020-2024 5-year. US Census Bureau, County Business Patterns, 2023.
Coverage
What this page does not hold.
Every item below could be filled with a plausible figure. None of them is. On a page a lender may read, a number that cannot be traced is worse than an absence, so the absences are named.
- No NFIP communities are listed for this county in the FEMA Community Status Book.
- Flood zone record counts are not held. The flood coverage export has not landed, so no count is shown rather than an estimated one.
- Traffic counts resolve in the platform, not in this dataset, so no AADT figure is printed here.
- Zoning is in build. Parcel level zoning is not published on this page.
Feasibility studies
When a Warren County site needs a document a lender will accept.
The same data layer behind this page is the one the studies are written from. A study for a Warren County site starts with the figures you are reading, carrying the same source and period into the credit file.
- Population41,531
- Households15,339
- Average household size2.71
- Median household income$84,682
- Median age40.5
Common questions
Warren County questions, answered from the record.
How many people live in Warren County, Virginia?
41,531, in 15,339 households, ranking 43rd of 133 Virginia counties. Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, 2020-2024 5-year.
Is Warren County growing?
The population has grown 4.27 percent since the 2020 census base. In 2024 there were 488 births against 490 deaths, with net migration of 481. Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, Vintage 2024, Vintage 2024, estimates 2020 to 2024.
What is the median household income in Warren County?
$84,682. The median owner-occupied home is valued at $348,400, which is 4.1 times income, and median gross rent is $1,199 per month. Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, 2020-2024 5-year.
How many businesses are there in Warren County?
882 establishments, employing 11,889 people with an annual payroll of $560.1 m. These are establishments physically operating in the county, not listings. Source: US Census Bureau, County Business Patterns, 2023.
What is the average wage in Warren County?
Average annual pay is $52,768, or $1,015 a week, across 13,387 covered jobs. Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2024 annual averages.
How much SBA lending happens in Warren County?
18 7(a) approvals totalling $15.0 m since FY2020, across 15 lenders, with a median approval of $484,000, plus 8 504 approvals worth $3.6 m. These are approvals recorded in the release, not loans disbursed.
What is being built in Warren County?
170 housing units were authorised by permit in 2024, with a declared construction value of $55.1 m. Multifamily was 0.0 percent of units. Source: US Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey, 2024 annual.
What is the radon zone for Warren County?
Zone 1, a predicted average indoor radon screening level greater than 4 pCi/L. Source: US EPA, Map of Radon Zones, county spreadsheet, 2024-05 publication, EPA 402/A-16/001.
Where do people moving to Warren County come from?
The largest single origin is Warren County Non-migrants, with 15,424 households. Arriving households report an average income of $71,722 against null for those leaving. Source: US Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income county migration flows, 2021 to 2022 filing years.
Are traffic counts available for Warren County on this page?
No. Annual average daily traffic resolves in the platform rather than in this dataset, so no AADT figure is printed here. It is a gap we know about rather than a figure we estimated.
Is zoning published for Warren County?
Not yet. The zoning layer is in build. Nothing on this page presents parcel level zoning, and where a statutory framework applies it is marked as the statewide frame with confirm locally attached.